New analysis from the Global Carbon Budget shows that worldwide fossil fuel emissions are set to shrink by 0.4 percent in 2026. The modest decline follows a decade of roughly 0.9 percent annual growth that pushed total emissions to a record high in 2025. It would be the first year-on-year drop since the pandemic-induced slowdown of 2020.
Researchers attribute the 2026 slide to a confluence of factors: a sharp rise in renewable electricity, accelerating adoption of electric vehicles, and a sudden dip in oil demand triggered by the US-led conflict in Iran that forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Higher crude prices curbed consumption, while solar panels and wind farms now supply two-thirds of the additional global energy demand recorded over the past year.
Projected 2026 emission dip and its drivers
The forecast breaks down by fuel type. Oil-related emissions are expected to fall by about 1.9 percent, reflecting the short-term shock of the Middle-East tension. Gas emissions should dip 0.3 percent, whereas coal use is projected to rise modestly by 0.6 percent. Altogether, fossil CO₂ output would total 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026.
Renewable uptake and electric vehicles
Solar and wind capacity expansions, together with a surge in electric-vehicle registrations, have become the primary engines of the slowdown. The report notes that roughly 66 percent of the increase in global energy demand over the last twelve months was met by these clean sources, underscoring the growing relevance of low-carbon technologies.
Expert reactions and the risk of rebound
Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget office at the University of Exeter, called the trend “encouraging” but warned that a decline driven by geopolitical upheaval is not a lasting climate solution. He emphasized that “the long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.”
Corinne Le Quéré, climate-science professor at the University of East Anglia, reminded listeners that emissions typically rebound once the shock fades. She pointed to the post-COVID recovery and past financial crises as examples where fossil use surged again, and she expects a similar bounce-back once Iranian tensions ease.
Carbon budget outlook and COP31 context
Including land-use change, total CO₂ emissions are projected to climb to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8 billion the year before. The increase is linked to peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, intensified by a strong El Niño episode.
The study also highlights that the remaining global carbon budget – the amount of CO₂ that can be emitted while keeping warming below 1.5 °C – stands at roughly 150 billion tonnes. At current rates, that allowance would be exhausted in less than four years.
These findings arrive as world leaders converge on the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. IEA chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times that the meeting could mark a “climate action comeback,” noting an unprecedented alignment of energy-security and climate goals. Brazil has already unveiled two voluntary roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and halt deforestation by 2030, while China will be represented by Vice-President Han Zheng as President Xi Jinping’s special envoy. UK climate minister Katie White stressed the need for urgent action in light of “really scary” scientific assessments.
While the projected dip offers a brief reprieve, scientists stress that meeting the Paris Agreement’s ambition will require sustained, systematic reductions in fossil fuel use, not brief interruptions caused by wars or market shocks.
