The ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faced unprecedented setbacks on Sunday when exit polls showed it barely clearing the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and falling to around 19% in Berlin. Both figures are the poorest the party has recorded in any state since the Second World War. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged ahead, with projections of 38% in the north-eastern state and roughly 16% in the capital, while Die Linke threatened to top the Berlin contest with about 26% of the vote.
These results arrived just two weeks after the AfD halved the CDU’s share in Saxony-Anhalt, a shock that has fueled speculation about a possible mid-term “chancellor swap”. Yet the incumbent, 70-year-old Friedrich Merz, who has led Germany for 16 months, publicly dismissed any notion of stepping aside.
Election outcomes that stunned the centre-right
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, early tallies suggested the CDU might scrape a marginal entry into the state parliament, but the final exit poll slipped below the crucial 5% mark. The threshold determines whether a party can claim seats, making the result a “disaster”, as Merz described it. The AfD’s projected 38% share positioned it as the clear front-runner, while the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) hovered at 35%.
Berlin presented a different picture. Public broadcaster ARD estimated the CDU at 19% of the vote, trailing behind Die Linke’s near-26% lead. The AfD, meanwhile, was expected to capture 16%, confirming its continued appeal in the former East German territories. Alice Weidel, the AfD’s national co-leader, proclaimed, “We are the strongest force and have reached the mainstream of the population.”
Merz’s defiant stance and reform agenda
Despite the bleak numbers, Merz addressed reporters at the CDU headquarters in Berlin on Sunday night. He emphasized that “the reforms have to come” and asserted his personal responsibility to drive Germany forward. “What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience,” he said, promising to demonstrate these qualities both as party chairman and as chancellor.
Merz framed the reform package – a blend of economic, tax and welfare measures – as an antidote to what he called “the authoritarian poison” gaining traction in society. He argued that the current challenges make difficult, even unpopular, policies more urgent, not less. By cancelling a planned trip to New York and opting to attend the U.N. General Assembly instead, he signaled his intention to stay the course through the upcoming parliamentary debate.
Political ripple effects and internal pressure
The twin defeats have intensified calls within the CDU for a leadership rethink. Earlier this week, eight state leaders publicly backed Merz, warning that “listening and taking political action, not personnel debates, will restore trust.” Nonetheless, murmurs of dissent grew louder, with some party members suggesting that a different figure might possess greater “Fingerspitzengefühl” – a keen sense for public sentiment.
Burkard Dregger, a senior CDU figure in Berlin, told the BBC that Merz “has a lot of work to do and we don’t have time to waste forming a new government at the federal level.” The chancellor’s approval ratings remain low, and his blunt communication style – exemplified by remarks on work-life balance that sparked criticism – continues to polarise voters.
While the AfD is classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence in certain branches, the party rejects the label and points to its anti-immigration, Germany-first, and Russia-friendly platform as resonating with voters in the former communist east. The SPD, led nationally by a coalition with the CDU, struggles to regain momentum despite a late surge in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern race led by Manuela Schwesig, who brands herself “the woman against blue”.
As the final official results are expected later on Sunday night or early Monday morning, the CDU faces a critical crossroads. Merz’s determination to push ahead with reforms will be tested in a parliament where his party’s influence has sharply contracted, and the broader political landscape in Europe hangs in the balance.
