The Ethiopian highlands are once again echoing with gunfire as a coalition of seven armed groups, including the former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) declared an alliance aimed at toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The pact, called the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival was announced on Sunday and has already triggered a wave of offensives in the northern and eastern regions.
Between 2020 and 2022, the country endured a brutal war that claimed roughly 600,000 lives according to African Union estimates. The conflict pitted the federal army against the TPLF and its allied militias, leaving millions displaced and large swaths of the nation cut off from basic supplies. The 2022 Pretoria agreement had held a fragile peace until late last year, when hostilities resurfaced.
Alliance formation and stated goals
On Sunday, representatives from seven disparate militias – the TPLF, Amhara’s nationalist Fano militia, the Oromo Liberation Army, and four groups from three other regions – publicly announced their cooperation. The coalition’s stated objective is “to remove the regime and facilitate a transitional government,” a sentiment echoed by TPLF Vice-President Amanuel Assefa who told reporters, “We are in the situation of full-blown war now.”
Fano leader Zemene Kasse is slated to chair the alliance, underscoring the uneasy partnership between former federal allies and erstwhile adversaries. While the groups share a common enemy in Abiy’s administration, their histories are riddled with mistrust; Fano fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF in the previous war, and territorial disputes—particularly over Western Tigray—remain unresolved.
Escalation on the ground: airports, towns and supply chains
Just days after the announcement, the TPLF seized control of three key airports in the Tigray region—Mekelle, Axum and Shire—prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights “due to the current situation.” The carrier also halted services to the historic town of Lalibela on Thursday after nearby fighting threatened civilian safety.
Ground offensives quickly followed. On Wednesday, Tigrayan forces captured the border town of Abala on the Tigray-Afar frontier, while reports indicated simultaneous assaults on Erebti and Berhale both situated roughly 100 kilometres deeper into Afar. In Amhara, clashes erupted around the strategic hub of Weldiya a crucial artery to the capital, Addis Ababa.
Humanitarian observers describe a grim picture. Residents of Adigrat, a city near the Eritrean border, recounted panic-buying as market shelves empty, noting that “food shortages are worsening as market shelves sit empty… essential medicines remain scarce and astronomically expensive.” In the town of Yallo, close to the Tigrayan border, heavy artillery was deployed on Thursday as TPLF fighters attempted to take control.
The federal army announced on Thursday that it had repelled the attacks, claiming to have killed, wounded or captured more than 500 enemy combatants. Nevertheless, the rapid loss of infrastructure and the suspension of air links have revived fears of a siege similar to that experienced during the 2020-2022 war, when communications were cut and famine-like conditions emerged.
Regional and international response
The escalation has drawn swift comments from regional bodies. African Union Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged “utmost restraint” and a return to direct negotiations, while an EU spokesperson called for an “immediate de-escalation” and a recommitment to the Pretoria agreement.
Analysts note the possible involvement of neighboring Eritrea, a historic adversary of Ethiopia, which has previously supported federal forces against the TPLF. Although the TPLF’s Assefa claimed no concrete information about Eritrean plans, he hinted that “we have no information about Eritrea’s plan” and that a request for Eritrean intervention has not yet been made.
On the diplomatic front, Ethiopia’s president, Taye Atske-Selassie Amde addressed the United Nations General Assembly, condemning “forces of destruction and mayhem” and accusing external actors of meddling in Ethiopia’s internal affairs. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abiy’s spokesperson, Billene Seyoum accused the alliance of receiving financial backing from Eritrea, a charge that Eritrea has repeatedly denied.
With the conflict now blooming on multiple fronts—Afar, Amhara and Tigray—the risk of a broader regional conflagration grows. Neighboring Sudan remains embroiled in its own war, and tensions along the Red Sea persist, heightening concerns that the renewed Ethiopian fighting could destabilize an already volatile Horn of Africa.
