Recent polling commissioned by Global News paints a picture of surprising cohesion across Canada on the question of Alberta’s place in the federation. While separatist rhetoric has resurfaced in both Alberta and Quebec, the numbers show that a decisive majority of citizens on both sides of the border still favour a united country.
National sentiment on Alberta’s status
When respondents outside the province were asked whether Alberta should remain part of Canada, a striking 81 per cent answered in the affirmative, and only nine per cent favoured separation. Even in Quebec – a region currently debating its own future – 69 per cent of those surveyed preferred that Alberta stay within the confederation.
Broad-based unity is further underscored by the drop in separatist sympathies since 2019. Only 16 per cent of non-Albertans now believe their province would be better off outside Canada, down from higher levels in earlier surveys. Among Albertans themselves, just 22 per cent share that view, a sharp fall from the 33 per cent recorded three years ago.
Alberta’s internal picture and the upcoming referendum
Within the province, the mood is more nuanced but still leans strongly toward staying. An 70 per cent majority of Albertans expressed a desire to remain part of Canada, while 20 per cent said they would like a vote on the issue. The October 19 referendum will not decide independence outright; instead it will ask whether the government should launch the constitutionally required process for a binding separation vote.
If that legal step were approved, the same poll indicates that support for staying would jump to 84 per cent leaving only 16 per cent in favour of a break-up. Demographically, rural, older and male voters show a higher propensity to back a “yes” on the separation question, whereas younger, urban residents of Calgary and Edmonton tend to prefer the status quo.
Political leaders and public trust
Both the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark carney and the Conservative opposition under Pierre Poilievre have pledged to campaign for Alberta’s continued membership. Yet the poll reveals an unexpected tilt in provincial sentiment: a slim majority of Albertans – 51 per cent – hold a favourable view of Carney, compared with 35 per cent who view him unfavourably. Poilievre’s standing is more divided, with 44 per cent of Albertans rating him positively and 40 per cent negatively. Gregory Jack, senior vice-president at Ipsos Global Affairs, notes that “the country’s more united right now, especially around the (trade) war with the United States … and dealing with Donald Trump and other issues, than they were in 2019.”
Feelings of inequity persist, however. While only 26 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta think their province does not get a fair share from Ottawa, a notable 48 per cent of Albertans share that perception – though the figure has slipped from 51 per cent in January 2026 and 65 per cent in 2019.
Foreign-influence concerns ahead of the vote
The Federal Foreign Influence Commissioner, Anton Boegman has publicly acknowledged worries that external actors might try to sway the referendum outcome. His office has reached out to individuals and groups that could be receiving guidance or funding from foreign governments, reminding them of the Foreign Influence Transparency and Accountability Act. Those with ongoing foreign ties must register by October 3, while newer relationships must do so within two weeks of commencing work.
Separatist leaders have hinted at discussions with U.S. officials, including alleged contacts with the State Department and public nods from former U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. These overtures have sparked speculation about American financial or political backing, especially given former President Donald Trump’s past comments suggesting an independent Alberta could align with a “51st State” vision.
Despite these undercurrents, aggregate polling from multiple firms, compiled by, still shows a solid 71 per cent of Albertans backing a continued place in Canada, against just 27 per cent who would like to leave.
As October 19 draws nearer, both the federal parties and provincial leaders will intensify their messaging, while watchdogs keep a wary eye on any foreign money or propaganda seeking to tip the scales. The coming weeks will reveal whether the prevailing sense of national unity endures or gives way to a decisive separatist surge.
