The past few weeks have witnessed a sharp uptick in activities that blur the line between covert sabotage and open aggression. An assessment released by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service warned that Moscow will intensify its hybrid warfare campaign, with consequences that could exceed previous incidents. The same report flagged a “low but growing risk” of a limited military attack against one or more NATO members bordering Russia, a prospect that has set capitals from Berlin to Tallinn on high alert.
Germany became the flashpoint on September 13 when a Russian-made drone loaded with explosives was intercepted at an airport in eastern Germany, mere metres from a Ukrainian aircraft. Berlin officially blamed Moscow, froze diplomatic contacts and called the episode a “thwarted attack”. Ed Arnold senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute summed up the reaction: “It just showed that Putin’s risk calculations are getting more liberal. Everyone just got a bit freaked out quite frankly.” The incident signalled a shift from low-key subversion to actions that could directly jeopardise civilian infrastructure.
Snowballing incidents across the Baltic corridor
Within days of the German episode, a passenger train belonging to Ukraine’s Ukrzaliznytsia Railway suffered a drone strike less than two miles from the Polish border, an event recorded on September 13. The train, which was carrying former CIA Director David Petraeus at the time, was halted for inspection while a second train remained at the station. The proximity of the blast to NATO’s eastern frontier underscored the danger of accidental escalation.
The next day, NATO fighter jets intercepted and destroyed a second drone that had penetrated the airspace of Lithuania near the village of Pratkunai. The incident, dated September 15, was the latest in a string that includes sabotage of defense facilities in Estonia, attacks on rail networks in Poland, and disturbances to Germany’s power grid. Katja Bego of Chatham House warned, “The Kremlin is playing with fire here: The risk of more serious escalation — even if unintended — is very real.”
Political fallout and Kremlin messaging
While Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in the attacks, the pattern has forced western leaders to confront an uncomfortable reality. President Vladimir Putin dismissed the accusations, accusing European capitals of manufacturing an “imaginary threat” to justify a war against Russia. In an odd twist, the Russian state news agency RIA briefly published, then deleted, an op-ed outlining a “lightning-fast” war scenario aimed at the Baltic states, claiming it conflicted with editorial policy.
U.S. officials have also voiced concern. Former NATO aide William Alberque suggested that Moscow hopes to demonstrate that Europe can act without American consequences, noting that the United States is currently weighing a reduction of its forward presence. At a recent briefing, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the press that the United States is monitoring the situation closely, emphasizing that the war in Ukraine could “metastasize and spread into other places… be it through a hybrid attack, be it through a sabotage attack, be it through a misunderstanding.” A State Department spokesperson reiterated that Washington is working with allies to bolster resilience against the hybrid threat.
In response to the heightened danger, the Baltic states have begun concrete preparations: Lithuania is drafting evacuation plans for older citizens and reconsidering its nuclear-free policy; Finland urges its population to be “mentally prepared” for future sabotage; France is rolling out a protective scheme for critical infrastructure. Nevertheless, NATO officials in the Baltic region maintain that an imminent invasion remains unlikely while the bulk of Russia’s forces remain engaged in Ukraine.
